Saturday, November 3, 2007

Tech Boom 2.0??

Let's take a look at some of those big gainer, Large-cap, tech stocks from 2000:
EMC, CISCO, Nokia, Nortel, Terra Networks, Cavion, Watchguard

Equivilant stocks today:
Google, Apple, Vmware, Baidu, Synaptics, Nintendo, RIM, Expedia, Amazon

Although EMC and Nokia have come back very strong in the past year, you can defintely see the difference in the tech companies that are booming today.

In 2000, it seemed to be driven by mainly hardware innovation and now the hype is more around the software. I suppose this is a very good thing if you happen to run a software company.
So, the question is...when and how will the bubble pop? As we already know, what goes up, must come down. I'm going to make a prediction that if the Fed doesn't get a little more conservative with it's money, it will be soon.
There are some very scary factors, like; the national debt being way out of control, the banks busting because of there careless mortgage lending practices, and the Federal reserve printing money like the Germans after World War I. I feel like these factors could really make this bull market go to sleep fast. Maybe I should invest in gold...?!? However, no one thought the real estate boom would last as long as it did, so why not take a chance before you miss the boat.

Disclaimer: I do not claim to be or think I am an expert on the stock market. I'm just making an obtuse observation based on working in the tech industry since ~2000.

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